According to the Scientific Council, the agency advising the government, a second wave of Covid-19 is “highly possible” in France as early as this autumn.

“The balance is fragile and we can tip over at any moment” towards an uncontrolled resumption of the Covid-19 epidemic in France, warns the Scientific Council that guidelines the government on Tuesday, August 4, stressing the importance of social distancing strategies. A warning message that was already given in June, and which today is reflected in localised bounces of Covid-19, for example in Mayenne.

“The future of the epidemic in the short term is largely in the hands of citizens,” warns the body in a new notice. Beyond the situation this summer, the Scientific Council still considers “highly likely that a second epidemic wave will be seen in the autumn or winter”.

“France is facing a controlled but fragile situation, with an upsurge in the virus’s circulation this summer,” writes the Scientific Council. “The virus is circulating more actively, with a stressed loss of social distancing measures: the balance is fragile and we can switch to a less controlled scenario, as in Spain, for example,” continues the document submitted to the government on July 27.

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The number of ICU cases is on the rise again

In the last few weeks, the authorities have warned of a possible worsening of the situation. This is true given that the indicators are rising almost three months after the end of the lockdown.

In the week from July 20 to 26, the number of new confirmed cases in France rose sharply, by 54% (5,592 in total). The threshold of 1,000 fresh cases per day was also exceeded, the French public health agency Santé publique France said on July 30 in its latest weekly update.

In addition, the number of Covid-19 patients hospitalised in ICU has increased by 13 cases since Friday (384 in total). This breaks with the downward trend recorded since April, according to the latest daily update from the Direction générale de la Santé released on Monday evening.

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Major cities in the Scientific Council’s focus

To prevent a second wave of the epidemic, the Scientific Council calls on the authorities to set up “prevention plans” focusing in particular on the largest cities.

It also points to “delays” in the strategy of testing, tracing and isolating positive cases. It thus recommends improving “access to tests”, which takes too long because of high demand.

Finally, in a separate second opinion, the Scientific Council proposes stricter screening of travellers arriving from “risk” countries. It recommends testing on departure or arrival and a 14-day quarantine.